13 Jan 2026: planning for population growth

Media: Rotorua Daily Post

Topic: Planning for population growth

Enquiry

I’m working on an article examining Rotorua’s projected population growth and what it means for the district over the coming decades, particularly around housing, infrastructure, transport, and community wellbeing.

Stats NZ projections indicate Rotorua’s population is expected to grow steadily from around 76,600 in 2023 to approximately 90,200 by 2053.

I’m seeking comment from Rotorua Lakes Council on how this level of growth is being planned for and its implications for residents. I would appreciate it if the following questions could be directed to the appropriate spokesperson:

Questions:

• How is Rotorua Lakes Council planning for steady, long-term population growth, particularly in terms of housing supply, infrastructure investment, and transport networks?
• With growth expected to be gradual rather than rapid, what are the key challenges for the council in ensuring services and infrastructure remain financially sustainable?
• How does the council balance enabling growth with protecting Rotorua’s natural assets — including lakes, waterways, geothermal features, and surrounding productive land?
• Looking ahead to 2050, if Rotorua’s growth is managed well, what does success look like for the district?

I’m also hoping to speak with new residents about their experiences moving to Rotorua. I was wondering if the council might be able to provide contacts for new residents who may be open to a brief conversation. If there is any additional data or context that helps explain how Rotorua is preparing for future growth, I would welcome that as well.

Response

We provided the following comment and information:

From Jean-Paul Gaston, Group Manager Destination Development:

Rotorua is in a good position to respond to what the community needs as it grows and to make adjustments if needed.

Every three years, based on government data, we update the council’s Housing and Business Development Capacity Assessment (HBA). It was updated in April last year and future capacity required for housing and business development in the Rotorua district have both moved from being in deficit in 2021 to surplus in 2025.

Our Future Development Strategy, adopted in 2023, updated our previous spatial plan and identifies areas with potential for future housing and business growth to meet demand and ensure we have a well-functioning urban environment.

It also guides how our council, and the Bay of Plenty Regional Council, along with land and business owners, mana whenua and the government, will work together to achieve good urban form that provides for the social, economic and cultural wellbeing of the Rotorua community.

Alongside that, our 30-year infrastructure strategy takes growth into account to ensure we are investing at the right level and in the right places and our District Plan will continue to evolve to align with our district’s needs.

We work with agencies like NZTA/Waka Kotahi to advocate for state highway improvements, such as the upgrades to SH30/Te Ngae Road which have enabled and supported commercial and housing developments in that part of our city.

We continue to invest in stormwater, water and wastewater upgrades, taking growth into account as a critical component of that. Our current Long-term Plan (2024-2034) includes infrastructure investment of more than $560 million for water supply, wastewater, stormwater and transport infrastructure.

Success for us is achieving our Council’s vision of a better Rotorua for all which is underpinned by nine key outcomes that include a commitment to protecting and improving our environment and ensuring we are future-proofed, cohesive, growing our economy, that we have sufficient housing options and meeting the aspirations of mana whenua and our wider community.

We also provided the following additional info and references:

• More about the HBA and growth info is here: Development capacity in Rotorua district now in surplus - Rotorua Lakes Council
• More about the Future Development Strategy here: Rotorua Future Development Strategy adopted - Rotorua Lakes Council
• See the Future Development Strategy here: Future-Development-Strategy-web.pdf
• The infrastructure strategy is here: ECM_20146469_v1_2872 RLC Infrastructure Strategy UPDATED 020224
• See the 2024-2034 Long-term Plan

The 9 key outcomes that underpin the Council’s (elected members’) vision for Rotorua which Jean-Paul refers to:

• Connected and resilient: Our communities are cohesive and prepared for the effects of climate change and natural hazards and we invest in safe and reliable infrastructure.
• Employment and economy: We enable businesses to grow with confidence through increasing investment opportunities. There are employment options across a range of sectors.
• Tourism: We are a world class destination, with a vibrant inner city and a positive reputation.
• Housing: All residents have access to a range of housing options that ensures they can live in quality homes that are safe and healthy.
• Active: The accessibility of our lakes, forests, open space networks and the quality of our facilities create opportunities for everyone to be active throughout their lives.
• Environment: We are committed to protecting and improving our lakes, waterways and forest environments.
• Safety: Our communities, businesses and visitors feel safe across our district.
• Tāngata whenua aspirations: We recognise and support the aspirations of Tangata Whenua/Mana Whenua and partner to grow economic and social opportunities and benefits for everyone.
• Arts and Culture: Our district’s unique cultural identity is the foundation for attracting and delivering a diverse range of events, increasing vibrancy and activity and driving economic and community benefits within our facilities and for our district.

We also advised the reporter that we did not hold information about new/recently new residents to Rotorua and suggested the Chamber of Commerce might be able to assist in finding a new/recently new to Rotorua business operator